Wednesday, 15 March 2017

Cheltenham Day 2



Not a brilliant day for my write ups yesterday - but I think a lot of other people were in the same boat.
I did highlight Tiger Roll had a good ew chance and that the Irish would fill the frame in the Mares Hurdle. Two or Three of mine tanked down the hill only to run out of steam when it mattered and I will be doing a review of the results when the week is over.

Yesterday a few trainers dominated - namely Elliott and Henderson as nobody else really came close apart from Willie Mullins who had two seconds and two thirds from 11 runners.

I have done a list below of some of the trainers day 1 fortunes:

Elliott - 13911
Henderson - 36112972P
Mullins - 2500448233P
King - 789676P6
Twiston Davies - 4590FP
De Bromhead - 836P38FP
Pipe - 1PPP
Mullholland - 674B
Nicholls - F4
Jefferson - 209
George - 206
V. Williams - UF
Kim Bailey - F
Tizzard - 08PP
Pauling - 97
Curtis - P7
Greatrex - 2
Fleming - 1
Skelton - 93P

Obviously it was just the first day but I think some of the top trainers would have been hoping for some better results than they got.

Onto today:

1.30 - I think Neon Wolf is a worthy fav here and he will take some beating - could be the Altior today! However there are a few for the places that could go well at decent odds. Willoughby Court is held in high regard by Ben Pauling and should outrun his odds as could Willie Mullins second string here Kemboy. You shouldn't overlook the Elliott and Henderson stables too who did so well yesterday and have their horses bouncing! It should be a cracking race though and one worth watching several times over when the dust settles.

2.10 - The RSA looks a strong one and Whisper seems to be on everyone's lips and with Davy Russell up he has every chance of being another Henderson winner who also has Might Bite and O O Seven. I liked the look of Heron Heights when he won here in October but I'm not sure this was the right choice of race and maybe he'd have been better in a handicap. Mouse Morris doesn't run anything unless it has a real chance so Alpha Des Obeaux should be at the top of anyone's thoughts and must be in any exacta/trifecta.

2.50 The Coral Cup has 26 runners all coming to win - with several laid out to win all season it's wide open and with the weights covering a stone and six pounds there's room for improvement. The Irish handicap hurdlers do better at Cheltenham than their handicap chasers so this could be another to go over the water and probably best to start with the trainer of the moment and last years winner Gordon Elliott who has the fav in Tombstone - plus Automated and Carrig Cathal. Hargam has cheekpieces on for the first time and has dropped like a lead balloon in the ratings - but he's still only had 14 starts and if the headgear worked could be thrown in for the Henderson/McManus team. Peregrine Run beat Wholestone and West Approach here in November over the distance and he gets his ground again. Tim Easterby is a shrewd operator and he brings Hawk High to the table and he's a previous festival winner so could easily outrun his odds of 40/1.

3.30 The Queen Mother has little depth beyond Douvan and unless he falls we know the result.

4.10 I'm not Cross Country form follower but I did get 8/1 about Cantlow earlier this year so I'm with that!

4.50 The Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle usually throws up some horses to follow so is one to be rewatched later in the month. However Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race as he targets this contest and Dreamcatching probably is the best of his two and Stan Sheppard makes him even more favourably handicapped wit his 5lb claim! Again after yesterday you have to look at the likes of Henderson and Elliot who both have runners here.

5.30 The final race of the day is the Champion Bumper which I have done reasonably well in previously. For me its always down to the times of races that the contenders have previously run and what pace they have shown at the business end as it's usually a sprint around the home turn onwards. I would be looking at the likes of Debuchet, Western Ryder, Irish Roe and Bakmaj. Kim Bailey puts cheekpieces on Robin The Raven and they may set him alight too!

No selections from me-just enjoy the days racing and Good Luck!

Tuesday, 14 March 2017

Cheltenham Day 1 2017



Thought I would do a quick post just to outline my thoughts for this years day one of the festival.
Its really unusual not to see any Nicholls hotpot in any of the races and he must be thinking back to previous years today when he had a grasp on most of the championship races.

Anyway with the going drying out all the time there shouldn't be any excuses and we should get a decent pace in all races.

1.30 The Supreme Novices only has 14 runners and its fairly wide open contest in my view as there's no outstanding horse. The one with the best form is probably Ballyandy and you have to respect the Mullins yard as they think they have something out of the ordinary with Melon-and they should know given the dearth of talent they've seen in their stable over the years. I backed High Bridge last year ew and I'm doing so again as I think 20's is a good price considering he's been unbeaten since and with a lot of the races at the festival your more likely to win more money on the horses finishing in the places than backing the favs! Of the others I was impressed by Glaring first time out and he was unlucky next time when making a mistake at a crucial moment so 50/1 about his chance is value too!

2.10 This looks like a penalty kick for Altior although there's always the chance he could make a mistake or even fall. One to take advantage could be Royal Caviar for Mullins/Walsh who probably represents the best Irish form and 14/1 is a decent price for something from this stable and he must have ew prospects. Other than that it seems a substandard race to me.

2.50 The first handicap of the meeting and it looks a belter with numerous fancied horses and no doubt some held back to protect their handicap marks leading into the race. Its often said you need to be a stone ahead of the handicapper to win any handicap at the festival and therefor with that in mind I would be looking at a few down the bottom end of the handicap for the places.
Pilgrims Bay stands out for me and I think he has been overlooked because everyone's banging on about the stables other runner The Druids Nephew. Pilgrims Bay won a big handicap at Kempton last month and in did so in a canter- he didn't win by far because he tends to idle when he hits the front and as a result he only went up 8lb but he looked value for more than that and he is only 7yo with limited mileage. The going will be right up his street as will the fast pace and the only problem is whether he will be suited to the track as he's not run here before but he's at the right end of the handicap and at 33/1 represents great ew value with those who are paying out 5 places.
Others that have ew potential are Label Des Obeaux, A Good Skin, Go Conquer and Vintage Clouds.

3.30 The Champion Hurdle is another race today that seems to be lacking in depth and I haven't really goy any solid views on this. I've backed Moon Racer here before so I'm sticking with him because of his course record and Wicklow Brave must be a lively outsider given his previous form and he won the County Hurdle here so knows his way round and he could be massively over priced at 33/1 - if you can still get it!

4.10 I can't see how anything is going to get past the Mullins runners here as nothing else looks good enough and it could be an Irish 1, 2, 3, 4!! - Jer's Girl strikes me as the best ew alternative. I remember her winning at Aintree and I was blown away by the speed she showed on the run in that day.

4.50 The 4 miler threw up a great field in hindsight last year and could do so again. Edwulf is well ahead on the ratings and as he has one of the best amateurs on board he could take some stopping. I've heard he will relish the distance but its just a case of whether the going has dried out too much for him. Each way value could lie in something like What A Moment at the huge odds of 100/1. No I've not gone mad - he did win here back in November and I thought then that he would be back at the festival and he went into my notebook. He will like the going and the stable think he will be fine with the distance so he is a lively outsider. Tiger Roll could offer a bit of value too and of course you can't rule out Mr J J Codd on a A Genie In A Bottle who has an excellent record at the track.

5.30 The final race will be either be a welcome sight or you will have packed up for the day if you've had a bad run. It's another wide open event save that the Twiston Davies team seem pretty bullish about Foxtail Hill's chances - but that stable has been under a bit of a cloud lately. Of the outsiders I would be keen on Venetia Williams Burton's Well - I backed him when he won at Uttoxeter and he looked an old fashioned chasing sort and he may well have some improvement to come and the stable is in cracking form once again!

No selections as such as Cheltenham is a meeting with so many views but if I've pointed you in the right direction on something that will be good enough for me.

Good Luck!!

Thursday, 26 January 2017

Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase



It was a reasonable start to the blog posts with Rolly Baby finishing 3rd at Leopardstown on Sunday. He just made a mistake at the last which may have made the difference between him winning and coming third but at least we recovered some place money.
Veinard didn't quite go to plan but he's one to keep in mind in a fast run race and I'm sure he will pop up in the spring somewhere.

Onto today and its back to Ireland again for the Thyestes Chase at 3.00 Gowran Park. Gordon Elliott throws seven into the race - but he has too as he just has so many horses in his yard and they have to run somewhere. I'm going for T. J. Taafe's Rogue Trader though ridden by Barry Geraghty. He finished 5th last time out in the Paddy Power Chase but he was simply given too much to do in that very competitive handicap and after making eyecatching ground turning into the straight his run began to falter jumping the last. the 4th home Stellar Notion has since franked the form by going down by just a neck off a 2lb higher mark in a Grade A Handicap Chase here this week.
Off the same handicap mark of 137 and hopefully ridden a bit closer to the pace this time Rogue Trader is capable of going very close and Monty's Meadow could just be the one to follow him home.

Selection
Rogue Trader - 1 point win at 7/1 totesport, Betfred and Bet Victor

Friday, 20 January 2017

Onwards to Cheltenham!



I must admit I haven't done a blog post for a good while as I've been occupied by another venture for a while but hopefully I can start posting fairly regularly again now and get back on the winning trail over the jumps at first and then back to the sprinting game for the flat season.

I've taken as keen an interest in the jumps this season as I have done for over 10 years and I feel I could be in for a big spring ahead.

My notebook is crammed full of promising sorts that I have been following throughout the season and also those that I know have been laid out for the big festivals.

Video recordings play a huge part of my form study and once again I have been pouring over re runs of races to unearth hidden talent.

We know the Irish always do well at Cheltenham but I think this year could be their best yet as they have a phenomenal amount of talent at their disposal.

Anyway lets get down to some action and take a look at this Sundays meeting at Leopardstown where they have some big field handicaps to get stuck into and the first of those is at 2.40 over 2m 5f which sees 19 runners go to post.
Looking back at the very competitive Paddy Power Chase at the track back on 27/12 we can see that a few of those involved in that 3m race, run again here over this 3f shorter trip.
Two horses in particular, Stellar Notion and Rolly Baby, were at the head of affairs for most of that race and only faded late on hence the drop in trip and it's Rolly Baby who now gets the assistance of Ruby Walsh instead of a 7lb claimer who catches my eye at 14/1.
He's now 12 years of age but amazingly this will only be his 11th start under rules. Last season he won two races both over 2m 4f and it looked like he could go on to better things. In the Paddy Power it was his first run since April so he looks sure to come on for that and having been dropped 2lbs he gets into the race on 10-3 and this looks a good chance for him to get back on the winning trail or at the very least be placed.
He seemed to be given an easy time of it by his amateur jockey once his chance had gone last time having been swinging on the bridle at this distance and it is hoped that he can make full use of the drop in distance here and this can be his day in the sun - although it is another competitive handicap with Stellar Notion and Lake Takapuna likely to give him plenty to think about.

Later on the same card at 3.10 is the 2m hurdle where 23 runners go to post and it's back to the Paddy Power meeting at the same track that we return for this contests likely contenders and for me they are the first three home there That's A Wrap, Veinard and After Rain.
That's A Wrap came with a very well timed run there under Ruby Walsh to pull off a bit of a gamble and Barry Geraghty takes over this time and its possible that he could improve again but the other two could be better value. Veinard looked all over the winner until he was nabbed on the line and 20/1 about his chances look very tempting as does the 11/1 about After Rain who finished as well as the winner in that hurdle.

Selections
Rolly Baby @ 14/1 ew
Veinard @ 20/1 ew - there 4, 5 and 6 places available on this race at different odds but 20's is available with Boylesports

Good Luck!